2023 CIRCA SURVIVOR – WEEK 12-A REVIEW / WEEK 12-B PREVIEW

PACKERS THANKSGIVING DAY UPSET OF LIONS LEAVES ONLY 154 SURVIVORS — CONTESTANTS FACE TOUGHER CHOICES LOOKING AT GAMES AHEAD

This week’s report is being posted immediately after the conclusion of the Week 12-A games, and just prior to the dozen Week 12-B games, which comprises the usual NFL schedule played on Sunday and Monday. 

Recall that this year’s Circa Survivor contest carved out two special weeks during the NFL regular season, independent from the usual slate of weekly games.  The two special weeks are 12-A (this week) and 16-A (in December).  

The four 12-A games were played on Thursday (3) and Friday (1) — Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, respectively.  Obviously, with far fewer games to choose from and such limited options, advance preparations and survivor contest strategy played a critical role in who survives, and who did not.

Then, there’s the unpredictability factor.  We never know when the so-called killer upset will happen.  Well, it happened — on Thanksgiving Day.

Oh, the irony.

WEEK 12-A REVIEW

Coming out of Week 11, for those still in the Circa Survivor contest, Thanksgiving Day was either a reason to be thankful, or a real turkey, depending on if you were one of the lucky survivors.

Green Bay’s shocking upset of the Detroit Lions resulted in a whopping 216 eliminations.  That figure constituted 58.1 percent of the field, which is the highest percentage of contestants to be eliminated on any single team and game so far this season.  So, what happened?  

Riding their best regular season start in 60 years, the 8-2 Lions were flying high and seemed like a safe pick for Week 12-A.  Playing against the rival 4-6 Packers, Detroit was favored by 7.5 points.  There were 216 contestants on the Lions.  Final Score:  Green Bay 29, Detroit 22.

What a shocker.

The limited 12-A schedule presented contestants with four potential blowouts.  All four favorites were laying a touchdown or greater:  

Detroit -7.5 vs. Green Bay

Dallas -12.5 vs. Washington

San Francisco -7 vs. Seattle

Miami -9.5 vs. NY Jets

Contrast this with the slate of games played in Week 12-B, with no clear favorites and an overwhelming number of possible coin-flip outcomes (scroll down below to the “preview” section for a discussion of these games and the contrast this presents for survivors).

The Detroit Lions as the overwhelming contest consensus was quite predictable.  It was very likely the result of so few other options.  Though we don’t have data on precisely how many of these contestants had already used up the other big favorites — Dallas, San Francisco, and Miami — in previous weeks, we can agree that an empty basket of available choices was the main determining factor behind selecting the Lions.  Moreover, Detroit appeared to be the smart pick by virtue of their record and the pointspread.  In short, they had no choice but to pick Detroit.

What I found most interesting about the Week 12-A selections was the fact that 12 contestants picked the Packers.  Those dozen picks now look like a work of genius.  Presumably, these contestants saw something in the Packers that the betting market was missing and/or simply made a bold and calculated decision that if Green Bay somehow pulled off the upset, that would then catapult the lucky survivors into a much smaller field.  The risk paid off. 

I’ll go out on a limb here and say that whoever wins the contest, will be one of the “Packer dozen.”  Making Green Bay the pick took guts, and that’s what it takes to win Circa Survivor.

WEEK 12-B PREVIEW

This will be the most interesting week of the season.  Let me explain why.

Twelve NFL games are scheduled in the next segment of the Circa Survivor Contest, which are all played on Sunday and Monday.

First, let’s address the obvious.  Only one game appears to be a mismatch based on the pointspread.  That’s Kansas City playing at Las Vegas.  The Chiefs are favored by -8.5.  The question is – how many contestants still have Kansas City as an option?  My guess is, very few.  So, don’t look for Kansas City to be the consensus pick, which would otherwise be the most popular selection.  The Chiefs playing on the road and in a division rivalry could also dissuade a few contestants, for the few that have them as an option.

Accordingly, that leaves remaining contestants with the following menu of team selections:

Jacksonville -1.5 vs. Houston

Indianapolis -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay

New England -3.5 vs. NY Giants

Tennessee -3.5 vs. Carolina

Pittsburgh -1.5 vs. Cincinnati

New Orleans -1.5 vs. Atlanta

LA Rams -1.5 vs. Arizona

Denver -1.5 vs. Cleveland

Philadelphia -3 vs. Buffalo

Baltimore -3 vs. LA Chargers

Minnesota -3 vs. Chicago

This is a brutal lineup to choose from.  Nothing stands out as an obvious pick.  Even though points do not matter in the contest, for those inclined to be influenced by the higher pointspreads, do remaining contest survivors really want to place their fates on teams like the Patriots or the Titans, both of which are favored by -3.5?

We can also presume many contestants have used up Baltimore and Philadelphia, and perhaps even Minnesota.  This will force survivors to make selections among several coin-flip games.

I predict a scatter effect in Week 12-B.  We’ll see a broader distribution of choices, rather than a concentration of obvious teams attracting support.

By the conclusion of this week, expect the Circa Survivor contest to be under 100 for the first time.

SUMMATION

The 2023 Circa Survivor contest cost $1,000 per entry.  There were 9,267 initial entries.  After 12 weeks, there are only 154 live entries remaining.  

Circa Survivor offers a winner-take-all prize of $9,267,000.  The implied value per entry is now up to $60,175. (Note: This data does not reflect results of the final 12-A game, Miami at NY Jets).

For the latest updates, be sure to follow @SurvivorSweat on Twitter / X.

Also, be advised that active Circa Survivor entries may be for sale on this site at the marketplace.